April 30 Notes

U.S. and the Middle East

Road to 9/11

April 30, 2008

I. Clinton and the Middle East

1. Inheriting Bush Difficulties (foreign policy and the 1992 campaign; ineffective early advisors; Somalia, Bosnia, 1994)

2. Terrorism (first WTC bombing: State/DOD, Reno, Clarke, road to Khobar Towers)

3. Taliban & Al Qaeda (US and Afghan civil war; Saudis, Pakistanis, and UNOCAL; second-term distractions: Starr, Kosovo, Pakistani issues)

II. 2000

1. Clinton’s Struggles (domestic context: Starr inquiry, movement toward impeachment, partisan polarization; international context: Kosovo conflict and constitutional showdown, Pakistani issues, terrorism)

2. Administration Divisions (Taliban as potential allies against bin Laden, or clear enemies [Richardson/State vs. Clarke]; assassination acceptable [DOD/Clarke/CIA vs. Justice Department]; Taliban as ideological or strategic enemies [Hillary vs. Clarke]; problem overstated? fizzling of Millennium threats, then USS Cole—Yemeni port scheme, futility of Clinton response, US as “paper tiger”?)

3. Arab-Israeli Peace Process (Oslo and U.S. disengagement; Rabin assassination and emergence of Netanyahu; Clinton, Netanyahu, and the Palestinians; Barak and re-engagement—legacy issue; U.S. and Syria; failure at Camp David; blame game)

4. Election (terrorism and campaign: Bush and Rice, strong hostility to “nation-building”; Republican right—1990s literature on missile shields, North Korea, evil states—looking backwards; neocon arguments on democracy; Gore—difficulties with Clinton, Reno and Elian Gonzalez affair, downplay foreign policy?)

III. 9/11 and Beyond

1. Early Bush (foreign policy team—weakness of Powell, role of Rice, Rumsfeld death watch?—former cheney aide—Career Pentagon officials "fear they're shackled to incompetence”—talk of libs saving Rumsfeld, retaining Tenet; Clarke and bureaucratic battles; warnings from the field—Arizona, Minnesota; weaknesses in airport security—airline industry, consumer groups, fear of federal power; PDB; path to attacks)

2. International Response (Bush/Rumsfeld, Clarke, and Saddam?; significance of Tenet; NATO and international support; U.S. and Northern Alliance; revising Musharraf relationship; decision for war; ousting the Taliban, bolstering Karzai; Guantánamo and constitutional theories; failure to capture bin Laden)

3. Domestic Response (Patriot Act and civil liberties; Yoo and unitary executive theory; Lieberman and Homeland Security Department; Rove and political issues—Chambliss/Cleland race)