April 30 Notes

U.S. and the Middle East

Road to 9/11

April 30, 2008

I. Clinton and the Middle East

1. Inheriting Bush Difficulties (foreign policy and the 1992 campaign; ineffective early advisors; Somalia, Bosnia, 1994)

2. Terrorism (first WTC bombing: State/DOD, Reno, Clarke, road to Khobar Towers)

3. Taliban & Al Qaeda (US and Afghan civil war; Saudis, Pakistanis, and UNOCAL; second-term distractions: Starr, Kosovo, Pakistani issues)

II. 2000

1. Clinton’s Struggles (domestic context: Starr inquiry, movement toward impeachment, partisan polarization; international context: Kosovo conflict and constitutional showdown, Pakistani issues, terrorism)

2. Administration Divisions (Taliban as potential allies against bin Laden, or clear enemies [Richardson/State vs. Clarke]; assassination acceptable [DOD/Clarke/CIA vs. Justice Department]; Taliban as ideological or strategic enemies [Hillary vs. Clarke]; problem overstated? fizzling of Millennium threats, then USS Cole—Yemeni port scheme, futility of Clinton response, US as “paper tiger”?)

3. Arab-Israeli Peace Process (Oslo and U.S. disengagement; Rabin assassination and emergence of Netanyahu; Clinton, Netanyahu, and the Palestinians; Barak and re-engagement—legacy issue; U.S. and Syria; failure at Camp David; blame game)

4. Election (terrorism and campaign: Bush and Rice, strong hostility to “nation-building”; Republican right—1990s literature on missile shields, North Korea, evil states—looking backwards; neocon arguments on democracy; Gore—difficulties with Clinton, Reno and Elian Gonzalez affair, downplay foreign policy?)

III. 9/11 and Beyond

1. Early Bush (foreign policy team—weakness of Powell, role of Rice, Rumsfeld death watch?—former cheney aide—Career Pentagon officials "fear they're shackled to incompetence”—talk of libs saving Rumsfeld, retaining Tenet; Clarke and bureaucratic battles; warnings from the field—Arizona, Minnesota; weaknesses in airport security—airline industry, consumer groups, fear of federal power; PDB; path to attacks)

2. International Response (Bush/Rumsfeld, Clarke, and Saddam?; significance of Tenet; NATO and international support; U.S. and Northern Alliance; revising Musharraf relationship; decision for war; ousting the Taliban, bolstering Karzai; Guantánamo and constitutional theories; failure to capture bin Laden)

3. Domestic Response (Patriot Act and civil liberties; Yoo and unitary executive theory; Lieberman and Homeland Security Department; Rove and political issues—Chambliss/Cleland race)

April 28 Notes

Bill Clinton & Middle Eastern Affairs

April 28, 2008

I. The First Gulf War

1. The Middle East in the New World Order (Gorbachev and crumbling of Soviet bloc; Gorbachev foreign policy; Bush and world affairs; NSD 26)

2. Run-up to the War (1989-1990 congressional pressure; international significance: Saudis, Kuwaitis, British; Bush, Baker, and coalition: USSR, PRC, Arab states, UN)

3. War & Aftermath (constitutional debate; military strategy; collapse of Iraqi forces; postwar structure; missed opportunity?)

II. From Bush to Clinton

1. 1992 Campaign (domestic focus: budget deal, economic downturn, “Year of the Woman”: Thomas/Hill hearings, abortion; scandal and reform: House bank scandal, term-limits movement, Clinton scandal, Perot—withdrawal and re-entry; foreign policy and the decline of Afghanistan; Clinton victory)

2. Inheriting Bush Difficulties (foreign policy team—Christopher, Aspin, Lake: Carter retreads?; national security difficulties—CIA and Woolsey; DADT and military; Somalia—from humanitarian to mission creep, withdrawal; Bosnia and opening to Muslim world?: tensions with NATO allies, congressional pressure—McCloskey, Dole, road to Dayton; early team struggles—Hillary, Whitewater, path to Starr, 1994 elections)

III. The Clinton Agenda

1. Arab-Israeli Peace Process (Oslo and U.S. disengagement; Rabin assassination and emergence of Netanyahu; Clinton, Netanyahu, and the Palestinians; Barak and re-engagement—legacy issue; U.S. and Syria; failure at Camp David; blame game)

2. Terrorism (first WTC bombing: improper frameworks? State-sponsored terrorism—Libya, Iran; law enforcement—legacy of 1960s, COINTELPRO, Watergate and concerns with domestic spying, Gorelick memo; Clarke and Counter-Terrorism Committee (“think globally, act globally”)—calls for focus on “ad hoc terrorists”; Yousef arrest and uncovering of airport plots; diplomatic reluctance to challenge Saudi Arabia—Khobar Towers)

3. The Taliban (Afghan civil war—State, DOD, CIA disinterest; emergence of Mullah Omar; Saudi and Pakistani roles; oil UNOCAL and desire for stability)

4. Second-Term Struggles (domestic context: Starr inquiry, movement toward impeachment, partisan polarization; international context: Kosovo conflict and constitutional showdown, Pakistani issues—nuclear weapons, restoration of democracy; terrorism—East African attacks; administration divisions: Clinton desire to do something; Hillary and international feminism; State Department and “engagement”; DOD and Mullah Omar’s 53 stingers; Richardson and diplomatic opening; CIA and anti-Taliban covert op; Clarke and targeting of Bin Laden; Reno and opposition to assassination; problem overstated?: fizzling of Millennium threats, then USS Cole)

April 30: Lecture: Road to 9/11 May 5: Lecture: Afghanistan & Iraq

May 7: no class—college holiday May 12: Lecture: Looking Back

May 14: Presentation: Syria/Lebanon May 19: Presentation: S. Arabia & Gulf States

May 21: Presentation: Israel May 26: Presentation: Pakistan

May 28: no class (I have a talk at Western Galilee)

June 2: Presentation: Egypt & North Africa June 4: Presentation: Iran

April 9 Notes

U.S. and the Middle East

The First President Bush

April 9, 2008

I. Reagan and Southwest Asia

1. The Iran-Iraq War (from CENTCOM to pro-Saddam tilt; the Tanker War and reflagging decision; US and Gulf States)

2. Casey & Wilson (Reagan and cult of covert operations; Wilson and ability to maneuver Congress)

3. Victory and Its Effects (CIA/Saudi/ISI alliance; significance of stingers; missed opportunities?)

II. The End of the Cold War and the Revival of Middle East Tensions

1. The Cold War Ends (Gorbachev and crumbling of Soviet bloc—perestroika, glasnost; Eastern bloc strategies of survival; economics, Solidarity, and Poland; Hungary and DDR; collapse of East Germany and reunification; importance of the Baltic States and emergence of Yeltsin; dissolution of USSR)

2. The Middle East in the New World Order (Gorbachev foreign policy; PRC and Tiananmen; Saddam after the Iraq war; Bush background—political difficulties, Panama invasion; Bush and Shamir; NSD 26; Bush and the Saudis; Khomeini’s death and Iran’s turn inward)

3. Afghanistan in the New World Order (media role; Wilson and continued push for aid; ISI and Kashmir; Najibullah and desire for national unity government—Bush, Wilson, Pakistan rejection; Bush I: bureaucratic divisions, global distractions; what could US have done differently?—question of leverage)

III. The Gulf War

1. Run-up to the Invasion (Iraq and NSD 26; Congress: Dole, Simpson, and aid, Metzenbaum and human rights, Gonzales, Kerry, and BNL; Justice Department; Kuwait dispute: diplomatic failure?, trusting Saudis; US intelligence failure?)

2. Run-up to the War (Bush, Thatcher, and decision to protest; significance of Saudis; Kuwaitis and U.S. public opinion; Bush and international coalition—role of Arab states; role of UN—significance of Shevardnadze, realism and the relationship with PRC, path to UN 678)

3. Domestic Matters (domestic difficulties: Bush, taxes, and 1988 campaign; deficit, interest rate, and economic slowdown; Darman and budget deal; emergence of Gingrich; Bush and Mitchell: congressional Democrats and post-Cold War world; 1990 elections; Bush and UN argument; congressional pressure; Senate debate; Baker-Aziz meeting)

4. War & Aftermath (decision for war and operation of coalition military strategies—air campaign, effect of Vietnam; diplomatic strategies—importance of Israel, Scuds and Palestinians; media and the war—CNN, Scud Stud; invasion and Powell Doctrine; no-fly zones and Bush response; UN sanctions and WMDs)

April 2 Notes

The Reagan Agenda

April 2, 2008

I. The Carter Years
1. Carter and the Middle East Peace Process (Sadat and Begin; nature of settlement; limited political benefits)

2. The Iranian Revolution (US intelligence failure; death of regime; hostages and “rescue mission”; crisis and its effects)

3. The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan (Brezhnev Doctrine and invasion; origins of mujahadin)

II. Documents of U.S. Foreign Policy

1. FRUS (Seward and government openness; development of 30-year rule; post-WWII bureaucratization and State Dept. Historian’s Office; pre-1961: http://digicoll.library.wisc.edu/FRUS/; post-1961: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ho/frus/)

2. Other Sources (FDR and development of presidential library system; Watergate and presidential papers; FOIA and foreign policy; National Security Archive: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/)

3. Approaches to Field (journalists and independent scholars; diplomatic history; theory, public policy, and political science)

III. Reagan and the Middle East

1. The Reagan Team (election of 1980 and altered American political culture; growth of defense budget; importance of William Casey, Haig, Kirkpatrick; nomination of Lefever; Weinberger; increasing importance of NSC)

2. AWACS (Big Oil and Saudi alliance; altered strategic situation—Iran/Iraq war; Yemen, Ethiopia, Sadat assassination; Reagan and confronting Congress; Israel Lobby and House rejection; significance of Jepsen; final Senate vote)

IV. Iran-Contra

1. Lebanon and Iran (Reagan and international terrorism; Israeli invasion of Lebanon; US troops to Lebanon: War Powers Act and Hezbollah terrorist attack; hostages and US response; search for the Iran “moderates”; role of NSC; diversion of funds to contras)

2. The Scandal Breaks (Hasenfus and crash; from Lebanon to Washington; Meese investigation; Tower Committee; what was Reagan’s role? Bush’s; Inouye Committee and North as GOP folk hero)

Year	Defense budget	Year	Defense budget
1977	$97.2B	1979	$116.3B
1980	$134.0B	1981	$157.5B
1982	$185.3B	1983	$209.9B
1984	$227.4B	1985	$252.8B